After more than four days of clashes since the early hours of Wednesday morning, India and Pakistan have agreed to a full ceasefire. President Donald Trump announced it on his Truth Social Platform, confirming that the ceasefire had come ‘after a long night of talks mediated by the United States’.
The announcement was made hours after Pakistan launched Operation Banyan al-Marsous with both Islamabad and New Delhi claiming to have struck each other’s military bases with heavy missiles. Pakistan’s strikes were a response to India’s Operation Sindoor that had been aimed at jihadist sites in Pakistan, following the April 22 militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. While claims of both sides will be dissected in the coming days, Trump’s announcement brings weeks of tension between the two nuclear-armed rivals to a halt.
The leadership of both countries can present themselves as victors to their domestic audience in the coming days
Marco Rubio, the US Secretary if State, played a critical role in the de-escalation, having been in touch with the leadership of both countries over the past two days. In a statement released moments after the ceasefire announcement, Rubio commended Indian and Pakistani prime ministers ‘on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace’.
The language of the official statement, similar to the messaging on Rubio’s earlier conversations with both the Pakistani and Indian leadership, reflected an equilibrium critical to both Islamabad and New Delhi accepting the ceasefire. The leadership of both countries can present themselves as victors to their domestic audience in the coming days. Even so, Rubio still underlined American commitment to working with India in ‘the fight against terrorism‘, while urging Pakistan to ‘end any support for terrorist groups‘, in turn reaffirming the Trump regime’s global position on jihadist outfits.
Even though the US in recent years has drawn closer to India, as a counterbalance to China, Trump in his first presidential term also suggested an openness to rebuilding the relationship with Pakistan. As Pakistan in recent months has sought to bring the US back into the region following the deaprture of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021, India has been eyeing financial benefits, with this week’s deal with UK inevitably influencing the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and New Delhi. Promises on the security and economic fronts for both the countries are more than conceivable, allowing the US to posture as the guarantor of peace, and signal a major diplomatic triumph for Trump.
This triumph was made all the more critical by China’s success in the clashes between India and Pakistan, with Chinese J-10C jets along with PL-15 air-to-air missiles helping Pakistan bring at least two Indian fighter aircraft down, including at least one Rafale jet, signaling the first ever loss for the French fighter aircraft in war. Pakistan’s successful hits on Indian jets has seen the Chinese defence stocks surge this week with Beijing’s military equipment now proving itself in the most high stakes battlefield in the world. By spearheading the battle’s curtain call, Trump seems to have acknowledged China’s challenge, and signaled a bid to reassert America’s supremacy in Beijing’s neighborhood.
The India-Pakistan ceasefire has overlapped with calls for the same in Ukraine with European leaders calling on Trump to push for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The Trump administration is also finalising the peace plan for Gaza with an announcement expected in the coming days. While Ukraine and Gaza wars linger, any agreement on those fronts would mean Trump claiming diplomatic success in three of the most turbulent regions of the world – quite possibly within the same year.
While Trump has much to gain with the ceasefire agreed in South Asia, both India and Pakistan too will celebrate their respective victories. India will likely claim to have responded with might to the April 22 attack and signal elimination of terror camps in Pakistan. Meanwhile, in addition to the global recognition of its downing of aircraft, Pakistan will likely assert a successful defence against Indian aggression.
However, while Trump might have guaranteed temporary peace in the region, the roots of war will remain as long as jihadist infrastructure exists in Pakistan, and a leadership baying for Pakistan’s demise continues to helm the affairs in India.
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