Labour MPs are currently nominating candidates in the party’s leadership contest to replace Jeremy Corbyn. The current Labour leader does not need any nominations, but as the challengers, Angela Eagle and Owen Smith do. A deal has been done between the candidates for the one with the least support to step aside from the contest so that the membership has to chose between just Corbyn and one challenger and the moderate anti-Corbyn vote is not split. Owen Smith has enjoyed some good attention and momentum in the past few days, with MPs who had previously supported Eagle bleeding off to his campaign instead. But sources on the Eagle campaign insist that the support so far is neck-and-neck and that they have had tellers outside the Parliamentary Labour Party office who are reporting that back to them.
But today’s Times poll isn’t particularly cheering for anyone who hopes that this coup against the party leader will be at all fruitful. Corbyn currently enjoys a 20-point lead over his rivals, with 54 per cent of Labour members saying they would give their first preference to him, against 21 per cent who went for Angela Eagle, and 15 per cent who said they would back Owen Smith. Eagle’s lead over Smith may come as a surprise to those MPs, including those who have switched camps, who think that Smith would be a better fit for the political leanings of the membership, and that Eagle has already (bravely) taken too much political heat.
That 20 point lead, though, makes where Eagle and Smith land rather irrelevant, unless Labour members will suddenly change their mind about their criteria in the leadership contest. And that gives rise to the question of what on earth Labour MPs will do if this leadership contest results in yet another Corbyn win. Some will be deselected by vengeful Corbynites in their local parties. Others will start to think more seriously about setting up another party (it is worth noting that a centrist, pro-European party does already exist in British politics, it’s just that with Tim Farron as its leader, it is unlikely to attract any defectors from the Labour benches). And some will have to answer questions on whether they will return to frontbench life and continue to serve under Jeremy Corbyn.
One politician for whom this is a particularly difficult question is Tom Watson. Labour’s Deputy Leader has started in recent weeks to talk about the size of his own mandate, echoing the line that Corbyn has deployed ever since his election last year. And he has made clear that he does not think there is any compromise that involves Jeremy Corbyn staying as party leader. If he doesn’t decide to depart from the job himself, the Corbynite knives are out for him anyway. One hisses: ‘The autumn might be an ideal time to change the rules so that one of the leader and deputy leader must be a woman.’
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