The laddie is for turning

In opposition, one of David Cameron’s strengths was the speed at which he dumped bad ideas. But, now, he is starting to acquire a habit for U-Turns – especially those called for by minor celebs. We’ve seen Scottish school milk, NHS Direct, BookStart, school sport – and soon, I suspect, forests, World Service cuts and (the biggie) NHS reform. A depressing pattern is emerging: anyone with a decent two-day campaign and a splattering of celebrities can probably force a concession out of the government. I make this case in my News of the World column (£) today. Here is a summary of my main argument.

1. Cameron seems to be pioneering the Celeb-induced U-Turn. With BookStart we had Philip Pullman (“an unforgivable disgrace”) and Andrew Motion (“an act of gross cultural vandalism”). On School Sport we had Denise Lewis, the javelin-thrower Tessa Sanderson and the track cyclist Jason Queally. Word gets around, so everyone has piled in on forests – from Judi Dench to the Archbishop of Canterbury. This sets an awkward trajectory. At least Labour was beaten up by the formidable Jonanna Lumley. It’s starting to look as though Peter Andre could solicit a U-turn on the Budget if he put his mind to it. Labour under-estimated the power of Lumley. But I really do think the government is over-estimating the intellectual firepower of the celebs now lining up against it.

2. Unable to communicate its policies, the government is being defined by its enemies. Take forests: it’s like Cameron is planning an Avatar-style war against English woodland. The tuition fees: it utterly failed to communicate that too – making it sound like an unmitigated bad news day for the coalition. Osborne is oddly unwilling to quantify his cuts (1 per cent a year) and this lack of definition allows Labour to say they’re fast and deep.

3. It’s all rather unedifying. The U-Turn over Scottish school milk was announced while David Willetts was defending the idea on Marr. It looks shambolic: and government decision-making often is. But it doesn’t do to let people know that.

4. It is essential for the PM to shoot down bad ideas. But, ideally, this should happen before policies are announced. The U-turns are all over relatively small policies, but it still looks as if the chef is wandering the dinner tables, taking back food he declares is undercooked. It suggests a problem of quality control in the kitchen. It sometimes seems that policies  (such as forests and NHS reform) catch the attention of No10 only once they are being read in the newspapers.

5. One can detect the Cameroons’ freestyle management techniques being imported into government. Downing Street still lacks a Leo McGarry figure, making sure things are working properly. The lack of special advisers is a real problem for a reforming government: it means that balls are dropped.

6. A failure to prepare the ground. Gove is bloodied, but that’s what happens when you fight every day. His Academies agenda is making faster progress than expected, but he spent three years preparing the ground for this. IDS welfare reform, the ‘universal credit’, was released 15 months ago in a detailed policy paper. Both are radical, fast policies – but with proper preparation made. NHS reform has come out of the blue, with a fraction of the preparation that even Blair and Milburn put into their NHS Plan ten years ago. I hear that Cameron is angry with Lansley about this, and rightly so. Lansley has been on the health brief for five years – why is the health sector only finding out about this now? To press ahead with so little preparation is asking for trouble. I admire Cameron’s courage, but on NHS reform this looks like the political Charge of the Light Brigade. C’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la guerre.

7. All of this will embolden the Unions. One can make the case for each individual U-Turn. But, collectively, they add up to give the impression of panic and weakness. The latter is especially dangerous, as it will lead the trade unions to think that – if this government caves under pressure – then it’s worth staging a week-long strike. When Heath acquired a reputation for U-Turns, he provoked precisely such a confrontation.

8. Cameron and Osborne perhaps understate the need for clear messages, and arguments, to accompany policies. Ignore the media storm, they might say. We’re doing what’s right, and we’ll be judged on the results. But life ain’t fair, not in that way. Ask Sir John Major. He was proven right: both in withdrawing from the ERM and in nurturing an economic recovery so strong it took Brown ten years to bugger it up. But Major could not communicate, so he was defined by his enemies – Brown and Blair. His punishment was what he calls a ‘voteless recovery’.

9. Clarity is required. Anyone watching Question Time last week would have seen the lefty economist Noreena Hertz stoking the audience into a frenzy, both about Cameron’s supposed raze-the-forest plan and that the cuts will lead to 500,000 job losses. Damian Green sat mute, unable to rebut. Nothing about how every independent forecast involves more jobs, not less. Rod Liddle has blogged his own verdict on Hertz (which I shan’t repeat here), but she was more articulate than Green. This is how governments lose arguments.

10. Craig Oliver is not a guerilla warrior. Coulson’s replacement, ex-BBC, will smarten up Cameron’s broadcast side no end – and also give valuable advice as to how a message will play with the masses. He’s a thoroughly decent man, which matters a lot to Cameron. Brown would employ the devil himself, if he thought it would discomfit the Tories. But Cameron’s structure leaves them vulnerable to the guerilla warfare that Balls learnt in opposition first time around – and will deploy now.

I can just feel CoffeeHousers – such as Tiberius – warming up to accuse me of being all negative about the coalition. Not at all. I think Nick Clegg is giving the best speeches in the Cabinet right now: his phrase last week about debt being “intergenerational theft” was brilliant and deserves to be repeated by every Cabinet member. He should have been the new Coulson: he explains things better than anyone. On schools and welfare, reform is happening. Cameron himself is proving a natural Prime Minister: everyone I’ve spoken to who has dealt with him directly talks about his calm, sound judgment, etc. Yet, still, these U-turns are happening – and could become much more serious for him.

When Craig Oliver was hired, one of the other candidates for the Coulson job mistakenly tweeted his congratulations to “Craig David.” I thought: that would have been a hire. Next time Judi Dench comes protesting about a policy and demanding a U-Turn, have Craig David walk out of No10 and send her packing. Fight celeb with celeb. But, as it stands, Cameron have to fight bad ideas with good ones. And that means significantly raising his game.