The last Brexit heave

The past few months have been characterised by high drama which, for all the excitement, has resolved nothing. We are back in a familiar cycle: posturing, bluster and a last-minute burst of Brexit talks. It’s possible that Boris Johnson will emerge with a deal and declare triumph by 31 October: he has always regarded this as possible, even likely, no matter how high the odds are stacked against it. But it’s just as likely that this will all end in failure.

If Britain does end up leaving the EU without a deal, the moment when such an outcome became inevitable will be traced back to Tuesday’s telephone call between Boris Johnson and Angela Merkel. In that call, according to No. 10, the German Chancellor said that the EU will never sign any deal that could lead to Northern Ireland leaving its customs union. She said that the so-called backstop is not negotiable. If this is the case, the two sides will not agree. Even if the Prime Minister were minded to leave Northern Ireland in the EU customs union for perpetuity, it would not pass through the House of Commons. No country can agree to have part of its sovereign territory in another customs union forever. The House of Commons could never agree to hand over control of territory in a treaty with no exit clause.  As negotiations continue this weekend, the Prime Minister will know that he cannot compromise on this point because his MPs would not allow it.

But there is a great deal that MPs will allow, and this is what the EU should focus on. Johnson has persuaded a great many hardliners to compromise, and there is an opportunity to be grasped. Parliament now stands ready to approve something that agrees to a regulatory border between the UK and Northern Ireland.