The last heave

There is a strange pre-revolutionary atmosphere in Brussels. At the various receptions and dinners before we broke up for Christmas, it felt a bit like the Last Supper. Elections to the European Parliament are usually predictable affairs, but this time Europhiles (like myself) fear it will be different. We have grown used to populists doing well in national elections over the years, from Sweden to Italy. But the European Parliament elections in May might lead to a landslide victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Italy’s League and other nationalist populist parties — and a victory may change the political face of the European Union.

In the past, it never really mattered much if the Euro election was carried by the left or the right: the result was the same anyway. The parliament has always been keeper of the federalist flame — much more so than the European Commission. In practice, elections only served the purpose of confirming the dominion of the overriding ideology in Brussels: that of ‘ever-closer union’. Yes, Euro elections would take in a haul of fist-shakers and heretics, and the odd political circus act. But whatever the question, the parliament’s answer had always been: ‘more Europe’.

Even two years ago, that mindset was still dominant. Emmanuel Macron had just beaten Le Pen in the French presidential election and promised to put new wind in the sails of mainstream politics. The West had reached ‘peak populism’. After the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump — two massive defeats for -liberal orthodoxy — Macron was credited with breaking the neck of invading populists. It was safe for centrists to come out. Politics would become normal again.

But there wasn’t anything normal about Macron’s victory. In France, Macron is the insurgent who squashed the centre-left and centre-right. And within a year of his win, the Freedom Party had returned to government in Austria, and Viktor Orban — the bête noire of Brussels — had been re-elected in Hungary with an even larger share of the vote.