Conventional wisdom is that Labour will win by a small majority tomorrow in Glasgow East. But isn’t a prediction of winning by a few hundred the equivalent of saying “too close to call”? A friend of mine, a former SNP by-election candidate, calls in with a few thoughts:
1. Word is that David Marshall had zero data on his voters, no canvass returns or anything. He took the seat so much for granted that he didn’t need to. I can believe this – I have heard worse from Labour rotten boroughs where the party organisation has atrophied.
2. The SNP are apparently very pleased with their campaign – ie, even if they get spanked, they believe their organisation hit the mark. So if the election is a matter of differential turnout, the nats will win.
3. It will be a low turnout, so we may get the result quite early on tomorrow.
4. After all that palarva, the Labour candidate, Margaret Curran MSP, has been quite decent. If they do win, Gordon Brown has her to thank.
And the implications for Brown if Labour lose? As so often, Ben Brogan put it best ages ago. The damage done to Brown has already been done, and having a majority fall from 13,507 to 2,000 – if he is very lucky – represents a swing which, if repeated nationwide, would see at least half of Labour MPs lose their seat. So victory in Glasgow East will be a misleading sort of comfort. And precisely the sort of comfort which the Tories want Labour to be offered. Brown is David Cameron’s top recruiting sergeant – the Tory message, as Cameron said in last wekk’s PMQs, is “vote blue and get rid of this useless Prime Minister”. That’s why both Labour and Tories will be praying for an SNP defeat tomorrow.
Comments