David Blackburn

The latest from Norwich North

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Counting is under way in Norwich North and the results are due in at lunchtime. In the meantime, here’s a selection of rumours, stories and predictions from the blogosphere.

Danny Finkelstein's live blog at Comment Central predicts that, based on the turnout, the Tories will secure around 12,000 votes to Labour's 5,500, though he urges caution.

The invaluable Andrew Sparrow confirms that turnout was 45%. He reports also that, whilst they expect to win, the Tories are downplaying expectations.

By contrast, ConservativeHome readers predict a Tory majority of 3,301.

Political Betting report that UKIP may have "done very well" and have potentially finished second.

Sky News claims that Labour have conceded defeat and are "fighting for second place with the Lib Dems".

UPDATE 11:15, James Forsyth: Word reaches me from the count that both UKIP and the Greens have done well and that it is turning into more of a scrap than expected.

UPDATE 11:30: Bob Blizzard, the Labour campaign manager for the by-election says: “I’ll never concede defeat until the results come in. I’ll confirm our vote is down, and the Conservative vote is up. I don’t think it’s up as much as they would like." Lot of conflicting information at the moment, sense of increasing desperation in Labour camp.

UPDATE 11:35: Tory press chief Henry Macrory expects the result shortly after 12pm.

UPDATE 12:00, James Forsyth: The great Andrew Sparrow is reporting chatter that Labour has come second with 19.5% of the vote.

UPDATE 12:02: Sky News reports that UKIP campaigners are predicting a Tory landslide; however, the Tories remain cautious.

UPDATE 12:04: Labour start making excuses. Bob Blizzard says that "Labour voters have stayed at home" but they are not disillusioned with the government, rather they are "displeased with the treatment" of fomer MP Ian Gibson.

UPDATE 12:05, Peter Hoskin: Andrew Sparrow is reporting that the the Lib Dems may have got 16 percent and Labour 19.5 percent.  Word is that the Tories are hovering around 38 or 39 percent.

UPDATE 12:11, Peter Hoskin: Andrew Sparrow is reporting a possible Tory majority of 6,700.  That's pretty big.

UPDATE 12:16: C4's Gary Gibbon reckons the Libs Dems have taken third place and that UKIP may have pushed the Greens into fifth. That's a disaster for the Greens following their good showing at Norwich's local elections.

UPDATE 12:19: Sky reporting that the Tories have won a majority of between 4,000 and 5,000.

UPDATE 12:22: Not quite there yet, but Sam Coates at The Times writes that Labour MPs are already infighting about how the party handled the expenses scandal. One suspects a government spin about 'voter disillusionment' with the handling of expenses.

UPDATE 12:35: Andrew Sparrow has overheard a curious explanation for the contradictory figures produced by the parties. Broadland council has, allegedly, limited the number of party agents allowed to observe the count to stop too many BNP members getting in.

UPDATE 12:44: Iain Dale tweets that the Tory majority nears 5,000 with a 14% swing, Labour on 19%, Lib Dems and Greens fail.

See the full results and Pete's commentary here.