James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Lib Dems could kick up a storm over the NHS Bill

Lib Dem spring conference is, perhaps, the most potent reminder of the cultural differences between the two coalition partners. In the Tory party pretty much the only thing that members get a real vote on is who the candidate in their constituency should be and who they want as party leader, even then that choice has been whittled down to two options by the MPs first. By contrast, the Lib Dems grassroots still get to determine the detail of party policy.

The Health Bill’s problems really began at the last Lib Dem spring conference. It was a vote there that led to Nick Clegg seeking a whole host of changes which then led to the pause. As they say, the rest is history.
 
This Sunday’s vote on the Health Bill could be equally significant. At the moment, the coalition line is that the Bill goes on regardless of whether or not conference votes to drop it. But if the vote does go against the leadership the politics around the bill will change again. For instance, the Lords will be far more likely to vote for Labour’s plan to delay the introduction of Monitor until 2016. Equally, the willingness of Lib Dem MPs to defy the party membership when the bill returns to the Commons is far from certain.
 
All of this Lib Dem wrangling will provoke a reaction from Tory MPs who will become more vocal about the things that they want. In other words, we are in for a period of, at least in the eyes of the media, heightened Tory-Lib Dem tensions.
 
Some will say that this is all noise, that what really matters is that the quad’s Budget negotiations are going more smoothly than one would expect given the media coverage. In many ways, they are right. But every time we see Tories and Lib Dems sniping at each other on the nightly news it fosters a sense that this is a divided government.

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