The Conservatives have, as predicted, had a pretty awful night, but is there any comfort they can draw from the local election results? True, the next general election now seems to be lost – the public has simply made up its mind that the Tories have been in power for too long and that it is time for a change. But if you are a Conservative strategist peering through a pair of rose-tinted spectacles this is what you might see.
Firstly, the Tory party has clung onto Harlow council – a town which was so much in Labour’s crosshairs that it was one of Keir Starmer’s final points of call in the campaign. When Tony Blair won his first landslide in 1997 it was the new towns around London which saw some of the biggest swings. Negative equity among young voters who had come a cropper by buying into the Tories’ home-ownership dream was a big factor then. The fact that Harlow, which lies just outside the M25, has remained in Conservative hands might suggest that the Uxbridge by-election effect may still be in play: aggrieved motorists are angered by Ulez and fear that Labour would do much more to make their lives a misery.
The Conservatives may yet avoid an extremely damaging leadership crisis
While Blackpool South was a predictable humiliation, Reform UK failed – just – to push the Conservatives into third place. Moreover, this was a seat in which the previous Conservative MP had been ejected from the parliamentary party in disgrace after a lobbying scandal, so the party began very much on the back foot.
The Blackpool South result does not suggest that Reform UK are yet in a position where they can expect to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition in red wall seats. Indeed, the track record of insurgent parties, like the SDP in the 1980s, indicates that they perform their best in by-elections leading up the general elections. Their support then becomes seriously squeezed on the big night.
Further, it is not all upwards for Labour: they have lost overall control of Oldham council. That might seem to be merely a local effect: the town has a large Muslim population and this looks like the same phenomenon which led to George Galloway winning February’s by-election in nearby Rochdale. Nevertheless, the modern Labour party is founded on being an association of minority groups. If it is failing to hold onto some of those minority groups it does not bode well for the long-term interests of the party.
Perhaps the most positive news for the Conservatives this morning – so far – is that no MP has so far publicly called for Rishi Sunak to resign. Indeed, one who has previously done so, Andrea Jenkyns, has said that it is unlikely Sunak will face a confidence vote. That suggests that the Conservatives may yet avoid an extremely damaging leadership crisis which could turn last night’s disaster into a general election night calamity.
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