The long list of problems waiting for the Tories after 19 July

The long-awaited easing of restrictions will not be the triumphant moment that many expected back in May. The Delta variant has seen to that. Increasing infection numbers have made the government nervous about the reopening. From 19 July, ministers will be busy trying to look responsible — consciously putting on their masks in crowded spaces — instead of being photographed gleefully enjoying the return of various freedoms.

If case numbers are, as Boris Johnson has predicted they might be, at 50,000 a day and rising on 19 July — and even the double-vaccinated still have to isolate for ten days if they come into contact with an infected person (which will be the case until 16 August) — then that will put a dampener on any celebrations.

The government is trying to brace the public for a surge in cases. Hence Sajid Javid’s warning that infections might hit 100,000 a day, which would be more than a third higher than at any previous point in the pandemic. (Previously, the largest number of new cases was 68,000 on 8 January.) What ministers want to argue, though, is that hospitalisations and deaths are what matter now, not cases. They calculate that even if cases reach 100,000 a day, hospitalisations will remain manageable.

Yet if infections are going to get even close to that figure, can it be sensible to lift restrictions? The voices arguing against this decision will grow louder. The seven-day average of daily hospitalisations has already risen to more than 300. But the best argument for lifting restrictions is that now is better than the alternatives. Another four-week delay would mean that the exit wave would crash into the beginning of the new school term, which would risk further damage to children’s education.