The Miliband camp can easily spin today’s YouGov poll, which Pete blogged earlier, showing that the Tory lead holds steady with Miliband as leader. They can say with some justification that the public has seen Brown doing the job and decided that he’s not up to it while they might warm to Miliband once they get to know him. More challenging for the nascent Miliband leadership bid is Labour’s electoral math.
If Miliband has set in chain a series of events that leads to Brown’s departure, then there will be a leadership contest. Huge chunks of the Labour party will not accept a Miliband coronation. At the moment, the talk is of a unity candidate—representing the left and the centre of the Labour party—challenging Miliband.
Labour elects its leader via an electoral college with a third of the vote going to MPs and MEPs, a third to party members and a third to the Unions.
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