While welcoming George Osborne’s emphasis this week on raising employment, I have some caveats about his target – to have the highest employment rate in the G7. This isn’t hugely challenging. Those in employment currently amount to 71.2 per cent of the UK population of working age, well ahead of Italy (55.5 per cent), France (64.1 per cent) and even the USA (67.4 per cent). Germany, at 73.5 per cent, is the current table-topper and the one Mr Osborne aims to overtake.
Aggregates like this, though, are dodgy to interpret and are affected by differences in age cohort size and other factors.
For example, the rising numbers of younger women in the workforce with degrees will almost certainly boost employment rates in the next few years, as will immigration flows and the increase in the state pension age. It will then be difficult to discern exactly what part Mr Osborne’s efforts will play in any rise in employment.
No doubt his heart’s in the right place. But what’s he doing? He rightly points out that the public sector cannot really create jobs and that the private sector has to do the dirty work. Yet it can only do so if businesses find it profitable to take on extra workers, or extend hours for those they currently employ.
They can’t do this if employment regulation continues to increase, as it has under the Coalition, with increases in parental and other leave, rights to flexible working, pension auto-enrolment, restrictions on employing foreign workers and agency staff, and threatened limitations on zero-hours contracts.
Another area where George Osborne is decidedly flaky is the National Minimum Wage.