Rishi Sunak has now formally declared that he is running to be Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party. In a statement released online, he says he is running to ‘fix our economy, unite our party and deliver for our country’. With well over 100 backers, Sunak — who I should say I have known for years — is guaranteed to be on the ballot on Monday. This morning, sources close to Boris Johnson have been emphasising that he is going for it too, even though he isn’t yet formally declared. This suggests that there’ll be no joint ticket between the two men. The pair met last night, but nothing has come out about the meeting.
Even Tory members might hesitate to impose on MPs a prime minister that most of them do not want
Sunak’s lead in public endorsements by MPs is clear: he has 132 to Johnson’s 59. Following the backing of Kemi Badenoch last night and Steve Baker this morning, he has just picked up the support of the Home Secretary Grant Shapps — the man who ran the numbers for Boris Johnson’s last leadership bid. Johnson has picked up former chancellor Nadhim Zahawi’s support. But with Sunak gaining 22 new supporters in the last 24 hours to Johnson’s 4, it is clear that the momentum is currently with Sunak.
The attention now shifts to whether Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt (who has 25 public declarations) can meet the nomination threshold of 100 MPs. The Guido Fawkes spreadsheet puts him on 75 – thanks to 16 anonymous backers verified by Guido. With over 60 percent of Tory MPs publicly declared, Mordaunt will need to put on some pace to reach the ballot.
It is worth remembering that if only two candidates get 100 candidates, the MPs will still vote – so the membership will know exactly who the preferred candidate of the parliamentary party is, and by what margin. It’s being assumed that Johnson is the member’s favourite, but that’s down to multi-candidate polling and even Tory members might hesitate to impose on MPs a Prime Minister that most of them do not want (and who would have lost a no confidence ballot this summer). The Tories can have an election as late as January 2025 if they want: so how viable would it be to foist upon Tory MPs a leader who was not the majority choice?
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