The new Labour split

In the conference hotel bar, there is but one subject under heated discussion, and it is, like treason, a matter of dates. The old Blair-Brown conference clash (RIP) has been replaced this year by a rather different sort of division: the Octobrists versus the Mayites, the ‘go now, Gordon’ camp versus the ‘wait and see’ crew. I suspect that this divide within the conference is nowhere more vivid than inside the capacious brain of the PM himself. He is, we know, capable of great resolve, boldness and theatricality: witness his granting of independence to the Bank of England, and his formidably choreographed entrance as Prime Minister. But he also has moments of epic caution, as he did when he refused to stand in the leadership contests of 1992, much to Blair’s fury, and then in his willingness to wound Blair himself but never to strike (a strategy of attrition rather than assassination which he would say has paid off in spades). Brown the Bold and Brown the Bottler are both here in Bournemouth, each with his followers making their case for different election dates. The question, which will be debated long into the windswept night, is: which side will prevail?