It is difficult for Scotland’s Conservative and Unionist party to know whether to laugh or cry these days. The last few months have been dominated by the SNP’s implosion – yet the decline of Humza Yousaf’s party could ultimately backfire for the Tories. For now, though Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, has never looked happier. So what might explain his newfound positivity?
The Supreme Court’s verdict that the Scottish parliament does not have the jurisdiction to hold a legally recognised referendum on independence last November was greeted with euphoria by the Tories. It means that without a compliant Westminster government, the second independence referendum is dead. And Scottish Tories had barely finished peeling themselves off the ceiling before the bombshell resignation of Nicola Sturgeon in February re-elevated them. Things only got better for the Scottish Conservatives as they watched the fractious leadership contest unfold, and the corrosive foregrounding of the police investigation into the SNP’s finances which followed that.
In Humza Yousaf, Ross instead faces a leader with a fractured backbench, declining public support, and the dark cloud of the police investigation hovering above him.
However, there is a cloud to those silver linings. The Supreme Court’s decision spells the end of their successful single-issue election strategy: vote for us to stop Indyref2. Soft unionists, having voted for the Tories for four elections on the basis that they are the surest protectors of the Union, have shifted back to Labour in vast numbers. The Union is solid and so is Sir Keir Starmer. Meanwhile, soft nationalists are trending towards voting Labour as the SNP descends further into chaos.
This leaves Douglas Ross as the opposition and yet not a serious proposition. Ask any Scottish political observer who the next first minister will be, and only those on anything resembling a week-long hallucinogenic drug binge will say it’ll be Ross.
Yet Ross is remarkably chipper; indeed I’d go as far as to say he has a new lease of life. His performances at First Minister’s Questions are the manifestation of Ross living his best life. Why?
The reasons are myriad. One is relief. Ross is a unionist to his fingertips (Unionist first, and Conservative second, I would suggest), and despite his party’s poor polling figures he will be delighted that, while he is leader, independence is in hibernation.
Another is his opponent’s vulnerability. In Nicola Sturgeon, Ross faced a political opponent of great skill and experience, but also one who had the full-throated backing of her movement and her party. Sturgeon found it easy to juxtapose herself and her Westminster opponents, to Ross’s detriment.
In Yousaf, Ross instead comes up against a leader with a fractured backbench, declining public support, and the dark cloud of the police investigation hovering above him. He has no momentum and little confidence. Ross enjoys exploiting that weakness.
Yousaf’s presence in the centre of the Holyrood chamber’s arc also suits Ross’s political style far better than did Sturgeon’s. Ross is, instinctively, an aggressive politician. His attack-mode works now, because his opponent is in defence-mode.
Most of all, though, Ross’s resurgence at First Minister’s Questions is down to confidence. The Tories’ poll ratings are abysmal, but Westminster’s electoral system means that they are likely to be obscured. In 2019, the Tories returned six seats on around 25 per cent of the vote. Next year, they are likely to return the same six seats (and, who knows, maybe a couple more) on less than 20 per cent.
The more the SNP-Green government focuses on issues seen as overly urban-focussed – such as the Highly Protected Marine Areas (HPMAs) – or continually switches back to constitutional matters, as it did over the weekend, the more those voters in the rural south and rural north east roll their eyes and stick with the Tories.
Winter is coming for Ross and Scotland’s Conservatives. But for another three years until the Scottish parliament elections, Ross can enjoy a long, long autumn. And if Yousaf’s problems continue, Ross’s fun at First Minister’s Questions may be only just beginning.
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