The next Iraq war

After the most intensive street-by-street combat since 1945, Isis’s so-called caliphate is no more. Last weekend, the Iraqi government won what should be the final battle and is now preparing to say that the war is ended. The jihadis still have the odd redoubt — but they have been forced out of Mosul and Raqqa after an intensive coalition campaign led by America and Britain.

Donald Trump is unlikely to emulate his predecessor-but-one by appearing in front of a banner saying ‘Mission Accomplished’. Theresa May probably won’t deliver such a statement either. Indeed, the war against Isis has barely been mentioned by either politician, even though our involvement has been larger than expected. But the world will see the results of it: Mosul and Raqqa, emptied for now of Isis fighters and with life returning as closely to normal as it can in the ruins. Already, an extraordinary two million people have returned home to what they hope will be a sustained peace.

Unfortunately, there is little to inspire any more confidence in that peace now than when Saddam Hussein was removed from power in 2003. Then, as now, the war was won but there was no convincing strategy to stabilise the country afterwards. This time, British forces were given a very narrow mission: the ‘defeat’ of Isis, which was a euphemism for killing its fighters. But what next? Nowhere in the British mandate does the word ‘stabilisation’ occur, yet this is precisely what’s needed now. When the fighting stops for good, the real challenge begins.

In Raqqa, for example, the insurgents were not routed. They were bussed out of the city, allowed to take their slaves and munitions with them, and granted safe passage over the border to Iraq.