The next PM’s growing to-do list

In theory, the Conservative leadership contest could have stretched to the autumn, but the 1922 Committee and CCHQ decided to crunch the timetable due to the sheer number of crises facing the country. So Tory MPs had only a fortnight to choose the final two candidates, which did perhaps change the course of the race. Given the support that Kemi Badenoch managed to raise in a short period, it is not hard to imagine her being in the last two if she had been given more time to make her case.

A longer contest would also have allowed the Tories more time to think about what changes they need to make if they are to win a fifth term. But for all the problems posed by a short competition, the essential logic of that judgment holds. The problems facing the incoming PM have, if anything, got worse since the leadership race started. It would be untenable for the UK to still have a caretaker government in September.

Take the energy crisis. Vladimir Putin’s agenda is simple: to prevent Germany’s gas-storage facilities being filled up during the summer months so Europe will be vulnerable during the winter. The UK takes less Russian gas than most European countries (5 per cent compared with 40 per cent), but as Moscow weaponises energy supplies, the resulting inflation and economic slowdown will affect this country.

The heatwaves striking Europe are also leading to higher energy usage. The outgoing Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi asked back in April: ‘Do you want air conditioning or peace?’ In the heat, Italians picked air conditioning. Europe’s continued energy dependence on Russia will make peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine more difficult to achieve. At the same time, the French nuclear reactors have been hit with problems: about half of them are offline.