James Forsyth James Forsyth

The next Tory leadership battle is Boris Johnson vs Theresa May – and it’s already started

The Mayor of London and the Home Secretary are squaring up for the next Tory leadership battle

Parliament is out for the summer. David Cameron is on the European leg of his holidays. But Boris Johnson is still beavering away, using the summer months to seek advice from his eclectic group of confidants as to how he can make it to No. 10. Make no mistake: his ambition burns brighter than ever. He wants the top job, and he’s determined to get it.

But Boris’s political calculations have been radically altered by his realisation that the main obstacle to him becoming Prime Minister is not David Cameron but the Home Secretary, Theresa May.

The Mayor and May are, on the face of it, opposites. She is the epitome of caution, he throws it to the wind. He yearns to be loved, she wants to be respected. He revels in the show business of politics, she disdains it. But they are both fiercely ambitious and hard-working. It is no coincidence that while others are off sunning themselves, these two are busy making headlines. Johnson is now convinced that the next Tory leadership contest will end up as a fight between them.

The Spectator understands that Boris has made it clear to the Cameron circle that he will not seek to return to the Commons before 2015. He will not be a candidate in any by-election.

More significantly,  he won’t stand at the 2015 general election either. Rather, he will carry on as Mayor. This means that he will not be a member of the new parliament, at least initially.

Boris’s decision to sit out the general election is a sign that he expects Cameron still to be Prime Minister and party leader after 2015. When the Tories’ fortunes were at a low ebb and it seemed that polling day would be followed by a Tory leadership contest, he was keen on the idea of a rapid return to the Commons.

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