John Stokes

The North Korea dilemma

As North Korea continues to ratchet up the nuclear rhetoric, the US and its allies have publicly determined that ‘something must be done’. Barack Obama, in what is the first and most serious test of his Presidency, announced that the world must ‘stand up’ to North Korea.

But behind the bluster from Pyongyang and Washington is a recognition on both sides that the opportunities for real action are very limited. For decades, as the North Koreans have developed their own nuclear weapon and then exported their technology to countries like Syria and Iran, the west has stood idly by, not least because they find out about new developments after they have happened.

With North Korea’s nuclear test earlier this week followed by a series of missile tests, there was foreknowledge but only because the North Koreans had let the South Koreans know that a test was imminent and the information had been passed to Washington. Usually, though, the North is not so accommodating and the lack of accurate intelligence about anything inside North Korea is going to provide a rude awakening for President Obama who will understand for the first time the real limitations of America’s intelligence apparatus.

The lack of insight into North Korea can be blamed on fear and South Korea. On the one hand, there is an extraordinary aversion to risk inside both the CIA and the NSA, a problem that has got much worse in recent years. This is matched by South Korea’s willingness to supply reams of data to their American allies and by so doing draw them into an ever closer embrace. For Washington, it is a seductive and easy solution that avoids all risk but it also means that the tail is constantly wagging the American dog with often false and self-serving intelligence.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in