In 2004, George Osborne wrote a piece for The Spectator setting out ‘The 13 keys to Number 10’. It was adapted from one of those American guides that predict who will win presidential elections. In 2004, Osborne predicted Tory victory using it but that was more due to some scoring decisions that were based more on loyalty than reality. Indeed, going through it in a more sober fashion would have given you the correct result.
Anyway, here are the 13 keys and my thoughts on who has the edge on each:
1. Real per capita economic growth during the parliament equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two parliaments.
No.
2. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
It’ll depend when the election is: If Brown goes in 2009, it certainly will be. But if he waits until May 2010 the economy might just have begun to recover.
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