James Forsyth James Forsyth

The plots thicken

They believe they will slowly creep up to the 48 names necessary to trigger a leadership contest

‘Worst week ever’ is one of those phrases that journalists are, perhaps, too quick to use. Alastair Campbell once quipped that if you added up all Tony Blair’s worst weeks, you got a full year. The real worry for the Tories, however, is not that last week was Theresa May’s worst ever, but that it represented the new normal.

Even inside Downing Street, there are those who worry that leadership plotting and the like will continue until Mrs May leaves the building. They worry that while they are strong enough to repel the plotters — as they did so effectively this time — she isn’t powerful enough to take back control. So the whole cycle will continue, with the rebels coming back for another crack every time the Prime Minister looks vulnerable.

The optimists in her cabinet believe that if the Brexit talks have moved on to trade and transition by December, May will find it easier to assert herself domestically. But the problem is that her position is now the story. The government’s race audit, which No. 10 sees as a crucial part of its political project, was therefore quickly overtaken in the news by her refusal to say whether she would vote Leave if another referendum were held today. This refusal to answer was immediately examined for what it meant for her leadership: would it make ‘Vote Leave’ Tory MPs less inclined to support her? It also raises a more profound question: can the Prime Minister overseeing the most fundamental change in Britain’s affairs in 40 years be uncertain that it is in the national interest?

Those who wish to oust May don’t regard last week as the end of the matter. Rather, they think that time is on their side; that they will slowly creep up to the 48 names necessary.

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