The political pact that could save Brexit

If there is to be an election before we leave the European Union, some kind of non-aggression pact between the Tories and the Brexit party is essential. Without it, the risk is all too obvious: that pro-Brexit voters will be divided, allowing pro-Remain candidates to win, even in some constituencies where a clear majority are in favour of leaving.

A case in point is Boris Johnson’s constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip is in the London borough of Hillingdon, where 56.37 per cent of votes cast in the 2016 referendum were for Leave. But his majority in 2017 was only 5,034, and if the Brexit party fields a candidate against him — particularly if some of the pro-Remain parties decide to stand down in favour of Labour — there’s a chance he’ll lose.

The ideal pact would be a formal one, endorsed by both party leaders. Nigel Farage would agree not to put up candidates in the vast majority of constituencies, including those with a sitting Conservative MP, and in return Boris would give the Brexit party a clear run in, say, two dozen Leave-voting Labour constituencies where the Tories don’t stand a chance. Such an arrangement would be eminently sensible and practically guarantee we’d exit the EU on 31 October. But I’m not optimistic. Boris will be concerned that an alliance with Farage will drive some Conservative voters into the arms of the Lib Dems, particularly in the 25 per cent of Tory seats where a majority voted Remain, while Farage will be wary of alienating potential Labour defectors. There’s also the fact that Boris would prefer to leave with a deal, whereas Farage is a committed no-dealer. Farage has said he won’t countenance a pact unless Boris unequivocally endorses no deal, something he’s unlikely to do.