With Boris Johnson going, talk now turns to the next Conservative leadership race. Tory leadership contests are always more like the Grand National than the Derby: crowded, unpredictable and with the favourite often not making it. But even by these standards, the coming contest looks remarkably open.
There will be no shortage of candidates. Suella Braverman, the attorney general, has already announced that she will be running. Steve Baker has said he’s keen. Damian Green has said Tom Tugendhat will run. Nadhim Zahawi, Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid and Penny Mordaunt are all expected to stand.
Ben Wallace is currently the favourite, and as one canny observer notes, the defence secretary has lost weight and is wearing much smarter suits; a male MP’s waistline is often the best guide to their political intentions.
The 1922 committee’s new executive will set out the timetable for the contest when it meets on Monday. There is currently a debate about this among Tory MPs. Most favour doing the parliamentary rounds very quickly and having it all done before parliament breaks up for the summer on the 21 July.
Some, though, argue that the party mustn’t rush the process and that it would be better to give the candidates time to set out their stall before the parliamentary rounds start. This latter approach, though, would require Boris Johnson to go now and be replaced by Dominic Raab, as it is hard to imagine how he could remain in place until October. For now, though, there is little sign that such a transition will happen imminently.
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