Tory rebels are split over Boris

Those Tory MPs who want to oust Boris Johnson are not a single group. They come from all wings of the party and all intakes and would not agree on who should succeed him. This means there is no single view among them about the best way to proceed. 

But one of the most influential of their number tells me they have now come to the view it would be best to act after either the police investigation has concluded or the May elections, whichever comes first. Their argument is that, at this point, there would be the greatest consensus in both the party (and among Tory MPs) about the need for change. This would minimise the amount of poison the deed would inject into the Tory bloodstream.

The danger of this argument for the plotters is that in waiting for the perfect moment, they miss it. Before the 2010 election, many Labour MPs were looking for the ideal moment to oust Gordon Brown. It never came and he ended up leading them into the election.

Others who want Johnson gone intend to keep pushing for his removal. One of them tells me that yesterday was ‘two steps forward, one step back’ in terms of Johnson’s removal. Sue Gray’s update was bad and Johnson’s own performance in the House was worse; the Jimmy Savile line appalled Tory MPs. But Johnson’s appearance before Tory MPs provided him with some respite. How long that will last remains to be seen.