Many years ago, Roger Bootle wrote a book called ‘The Death of Inflation’ which was a brilliant guide to understanding the economics which were to dominate all major countries in the Brown years. We need a book called ‘The Rebirth of Inflation’ to explain the years ahead. Your savings strategy, property strategy and shopping trends will all be affected.
The Daily Mail today unpacks energy inflation, and had the boldness to splash with this hugely important story. There are also huge questions around food inflation being asked in Rome today involving the harm inflicted by biofuels, the challenge of feeding China and India and a new look at GM food. To what extent is this inflation fuelled by lax uk monetary policy or the plunging pound? To what extent can it be seen as tax, or a morally pernicious force that transfers wealth from savers to borrowers? I spent a good chunk of the recess trying to find out, and there is a dearth of detail. People are still using the analytical tools of the low-inflation era, and they don’t help us.
Above all, Cameron has to get his head around this. I met Bootle at our 180th anniversary party and he said he has no plans to revisit the subject. A shame. Because someone needs to, and soon.
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