We might not know what deal David Cameron will bring back from his renegotiation with Europe but now we know what the two campaigns will look like. Their leading lights went head-to-head at the Spectator debate this evening and it was a fascinating insight into how they plan to fight. Dominic Cummings, the co-director of the Vote Leave campaign, argued that a vote to leave the EU would force a rethink of the entire European project, Britain would gain £20 billion to invest and we’d have ‘far more influence around the world’ thanks to the opportunity for Britain to finally represent itself on global bodies.
But Cummings’ strongest argument was that the EU is a throwback to the world of the 1950s; an institution that is out of step with the globalised world with trade deals no longer fit for purpose. His focus on the future was about growing Britain’s technology and research sector, underlining the positive the case Vote Leave will be making about a Brexit. Cummings also continued to make the argument that there is a possibility of two EU referendums — something Arron Banks and the Leave.EU camp believe is counterproductive.
Will Straw, the executive director of Britain Stronger In Europe, talked up the dangers of Britain leaving the EU — ‘if we leave, we don’t know what the destination will be’— while praising David Cameron for his renegotiation efforts. He argued that if the country voted for a Brexit, Britain would face tariffs on goods and services and prices would therefore rise. He admitted three million jobs weren’t at risk if we left, but they were linked to EU membership.
Like other campaigners for Britain to remain in Europe, Straw said that the renegotiation wouldn’t be a vote for the status quo — Britain would have to keep campaigning for reform after a Remain vote and avoid more integration. Brexiters would argue there is no proof that this can be achieved and this is the opposite direction from other European countries — Straw notably received an almighty booing when he said that ‘the idea of a federal Europe is dead and buried’. He also told Cummings that his campaign should ‘stop running Britain down, we’re a leader not a follower’ — a reference to our ability to get improved deals from Brussels. It was also clear the CBI will have problems campaigning in this referendum as their representative couldn’t answer why they were wrong about backing the ERM or joining the Euro.
But the most striking moment of the night was Cummings’ point that every single treaty change over the last 70 years has resulted in more power for the EU— so why would it be any different this time around? It’s a powerful argument and one that the Stronger In campaign will have to figure an answer to, because it plays into the fears of voters who are concerned about losing even more powers to Brussels.
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