This is perhaps the biggest weekend yet in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential
nomination. The candidates clashed on Thursday night in their third televised debate, and will contest the traditionally important Ames Straw Poll in Iowa today. In truth, as Alex says, neither the debate nor the straw poll will have that big an impact on the race. More significant is an event
taking place more than a thousand miles from Ames, in Charleston, South Carolina. There, Texas Governor Rick Perry will announce his entry to the race. And judging by current polling and betting trends, he will start out as joint favourite.
Until now, Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner, notionally at least. He has led in almost all of the national polls, but has rarely had more than 25 per cent of support, and currently averages just 20 per cent. His favourability ratings are worse. Just 17 per cent of those Republicans familiar with Romney have a strongly favourable view of him. On this measure, he lags behind not only Rick Perry, but also Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and – though they look unlikely to run – Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani.
Romney’s weak frontrunner status has survived largely because of the lack of the strong alternative. The only announced candidate with similarly high name recognition is Newt Gingrich, and his poll ratings are poor after his campaign self-destructed two months ago. Michele Bachmann has been catching up, but she would make an uncompetitive nominee against Obama and the surge in support she enjoyed in June and July has receded somewhat in the last week or so. The other declared challengers have all failed to generate much enthusiasm among Republican voters, and so Romney’s position at the top has been largely unopposed.
Rick Perry’s entry to the race changes that. He generates a lot of enthusiasm among the conservative base, and already polls strongly. Despite being much less well-known (54 per cent recognise his name, compared to 86 for Romney), both CNN and Gallup have him within two points of Romney. And being a Southerner gives him an advantage in the Republican primaries that could outweigh Romney’s head-start in funds and infrastructure.
Neither Perry nor Romney are taking part in today’s straw poll, so the real question in Ames is whether a third candidate can emerge to mount a serious challenge. Should either Bachmann (the favourite) or Tim Pawlenty win the poll, it could help revive their flagging campaigns. Perry and Romney will probably therefore be hoping for a Ron Paul victory. Paul enjoys limited but intense support, and has already won three smaller straw polls. Should he win today, few will think he can replicate this success in the much higher-turnout primaries, and it will be regarded more as a defeat for Bachmann and Pawlenty, dealing a crippling blow to each of their campaigns.
In other words, today will tell us little about the top-tier fight for the Republican nomination, but may give us a better idea which of the other candidates (if any) will be serious contenders and which will just be also-rans.
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