The Right Revd

It is a good job that the Crown Nominations Commission chooses its two favoured candidates for Archbishop of Canterbury in secret and without the pageantry involved when the cardinals choose a new Pope. Otherwise, there would be some extremely unhappy reporters stationed on a pavement somewhere, waiting in exasperation for a puff of white smoke. Last week, the Commission failed after three days to make its choice of the two names which it must put forward to the Prime Minister, and it has warned that weeks may pass before it does make a decision.

Despite the delay, there is a growing expectation that the job will go to Justin Welby, the Bishop of Durham. The early favourite, Dr John Sentamu, Archbishop of York, seems to be fading. For anyone who has followed party leadership elections over the past few years, this was highly predictable — and potentially profitable for punters. Earlier this year, Sentamu was 11/8 favourite and Welby a 9/1 outsider, odds which have reversed in recent weeks.

As with the battles over party leadership, the Crown Nominations Commission appears to have coalesced around the candidate who has been around for the shortest time and had the chance to make the fewest enemies. Justin Welby, who has been a bishop for just a year, is the equivalent of Ed Miliband in 2010, David Cameron in 2005, Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 and William Hague in 1997. Dr Sentamu, on the other hand, has suffered from the frontrunner’s curse. He is the candidate who has attracted the whispers and against whom compromise candidates have been pitched.

It would be a poor outcome, though, if he were to be excluded. There is no senior churchman better able to communicate with believers and non-believers in Britain, and no other candidate who would be capable of holding together the wider Anglican church.