Sebastian Payne

The second preference conundrum and why Liz Kendall shouldn’t drop out

Is Liz Kendall about to quit the Labour leadership race? The Times reports comments from Labour sources who say Kendall’s time is up — given her poor showing in the recent YouGov poll and CLP nominations — and she should drop out for the good of the party. One MP told the paper ‘it may have to be Liz saying, “Look, I’m not going to win”‘. Another senior Labour figure said ‘there’s quite a bit of private pressure building up on Liz.’

These Labour figures do not appear to understand how the party leader is elected. The preferential Alternative Vote system means that candidates will be knocked one by one out until someone has a majority. In 2010, there were five rounds until Ed Miliband reached 50.65 per cent of the vote. Therefore, assuming Kendall remains in this race— as her campaign are adamant  she will — and finishes in 4th place, her votes will be redistributed elsewhere and not wasted.

There is an argument that Cooper and Kendall are closer in their views than Burnham and Kendall, so the former should drop out and tell her supporters to back Cooper in order to stop Jeremy Corbyn. An ally of Cooper told the Times that Kendall should copy what Gordon Brown did to make way for Tony Blair: ‘the moderates came together to make sure they didn’t split the vote in 1994 — something like that needs to happen again.’

If all the attention of the Labour leadership race was focused on Corbyn and one other candidate, there is an argument that Kendall dropping out would focus Labour’s minds and the media attention on the two-horse race. But at present, it’s still very much a three-way contest and the second preferences matter. Therefore, there is no logical argument for Kendall dropping out.

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