The seismic importance of Putin’s latest move

Vladimir Putin has tonight unilaterally recognised the two breakaway republics in Ukraine. In doing so, he has effectively ended the Minsk peace process. The move also begs the question of whether Putin is recognising the territory that these so-called republics actually hold, or the much larger territory that they claim. If the latter, then that raises the question of whether Russian troops will be used to take that land given that Putin immediately signed ‘friendship and mutual assistance’ treaties with them at the end of his speech this afternoon.

The speech, though, went even further than recognising the break-away republics, carving off another chunk off Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. It denied the existence of Ukraine as a country, claiming that it was just a Soviet creation, and ended with a blood-curdling warning to the government in Kiev, which he continues to accuse of being the aggressor despite the fact that it is clearly Russia which is seeking to redraw Ukraine’s borders.

Putin’s unilateral actions tonight pose a clear challenge to the West. Will it respond to this violation of international law with proper, sweeping sanctions? If not, then it will suggest that Europe has been returned to an age where large countries can redraw the map through massing large forces and then dare anyone to oppose them. Putin has chosen this action partly because he knows that there will be divisions among European countries about how to react to it. But if the West is not united in its response to Putin, then he will be emboldened and further claims on Ukrainian territory are bound to follow.