It is not currently looking hopeful that Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will pass in the Commons. The Prime Minister will need to convince a good number of Labour MPs and independents in order to get over his lack of a majority and the DUP’s current refusal to support the government. There are also a number of internal Tory dynamics at play here.
The European Research Group has not yet announced its official position on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, but already there is a strong chance it could diverge from the DUP. The Brexiteer group was split at the third vote on Theresa May’s deal, with dozens of its members voting with the government rather than following the DUP into the ‘No’ lobbies.
There is an anxiety amongst some ERG members that if they don’t vote for this deal, they will become part of the ‘Parliament blocking Brexit’ narrative which will likely dominate the general election that swiftly follows another defeat.
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