It is a measure of the extent of the SNP’s decline that nationalist activists have seized on a new Ipsos poll that shows the party is now neck and neck with Scottish Labour. After all, it was only 18 months ago that the same company suggested the SNP enjoyed the support of more than half of people in Scotland, with Anas Sarwar’s party languishing on 25 per cent. Two resignations, a campervan and several unpopular policies later, however, and the SNP is now regularly recorded as being behind Scottish Labour, in one recent poll by as much as 10 points. Hence the excitement in otherwise weary nationalist circles that they may now be, at least, back to level pegging.
But despite the encouraging overall headline in this latest poll for the SNP, the devil is in the detail. While 36 per cent of people in Scotland back the party, that’s a fall of three points since Ipsos last took soundings in January. In contrast, Scottish Labour has gained four points over the same period. So, while SNP activists may find the headline figures comforting, the trajectory is anything but.
While SNP activists may find the headline figures comforting, the trajectory is anything but.
SNP HQ will hope that new party leader John Swinney may help halt the party’s decline, but he faces a tough challenge to meet even those modest expectations. After two months in the job, he is already less popular than Labour’s Sarwar, with 42 per cent of voters expressing dissatisfaction with his performance. And the wider political picture is equally bleak for the nationalists. The Scottish Greens — the SNP’s erstwhile partners in government and separatist fellow travellers — have also seen their popularity decline, despite support for independence sitting at 51 per cent. This suggests a decoupling of the constitution from party politics, and that pro-independence voters are increasingly willing to back Unionist parties — a development that Labour strategists have always viewed as crucial to their party’s recovery in Scotland.
The declining resonance of the independence debate is also reflected in the issues that matter to voters in Scotland. The NHS is the primary area of concern for 33 percent of people, followed by the economy. While Ipsos’s research ranks independence as voters’ third priority (higher than in most recent surveys) it is still only a concern for less than a fifth of voters. With NHS waiting lists in Scotland at a record high — and the SNP has made Scotland the highest-taxed part of the UK — there is little of substance here for Swinney to fall back on.
Given the marginal nature of many SNP held seats, the nationalists will take some solace from the suggestion that nearly half of voters may still change their mind. But even this is cold comfort: of those still willing to change their mind, double the number are considering switching to Labour (24 per cent) compared to the SNP (12 per cent). If anything, the situation is likely to get worse and not better for the nationalists as we get closer to polling day.
From Scottish Labour’s point of view, such polls may also prove useful. Reflecting on the Ipsos figures, one senior party strategist suggested the neck-and-neck top line will help focus minds among members and help the party itself guard against complacency. Meanwhile, perceptions of a tight race between the SNP and Scottish Labour may also help the latter party tempt pro-Union voters from the turmoil-engulfed Scottish Conservatives.
But the real story here is undoubtedly the SNP’s decline. As much as the nationalist faithful might want to see a silver lining in this particular cloud, the overall outlook for the SNP remains profoundly grey.
Comments