If you want to know how deep is the crisis in which the Scottish National Party currently finds itself, let this sink in: the next leader of the party will be a man who’s already had the job and made an absolute mess of it. In a remarkable turn of events following the resignation of Humza Yousaf on Monday, senior SNP figures quickly began urging John Swinney – who served as Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy when she was First Minister – to enter the contest to replace him. This morning, Swinney accepted their challenge and announced his candidacy to become SNP leader and, thus, Scotland’s seventh First Minister since the establishment of the Scottish parliament 25 years ago. By early afternoon, former Finance Secretary Kate Forbes let it be known she would not stand, leaving the way clear for a Swinney coronation. Forbes is expected to be handed a senior role in the new cabinet.
Swinney decided to stand for one reason: to stop Forbes getting the job
Announcing his candidacy, Swinney spoke of his desire to create a ‘modern, diverse Scotland’, which prompts the question ‘what has the SNP been doing in government for the past 17 years?’. Swinney declared his politics were of the moderate centre left. But while the SNP’s new leader made a decent stab at appearing enthusiastic about the prospect of taking on the top job in Scottish politics, the truth is that when he stepped down as Sturgeon’s deputy FM last year, he made it perfectly clear he had done his shift. It was time for a new generation and, well, you know all the cliches.
Swinney succeeded Alex Salmond as SNP leader in 2000 and was so hopeless that, by 2004, Salmond was dragged back by colleagues fearful the party was in terminal decline. It was perfectly reasonable for Swinney to point out on Thursday that he had changed since those days, but the fact remains that his return to leadership would be like the Conservatives announcing Rishi Sunak was to be replaced by William Hague. He is, by any standard, yesterday’s man.
Swinney decided to stand for one reason and one reason only: to stop Forbes getting the job. Forbes, a devout Christian and member of the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland stood to replace Sturgeon last year. Her campaign was damaged when, in an early interview, she explained that her faith would not have permitted her to vote in favour of gay marriage had she been a parliamentarian at the time the matter was being debated.
This led to furious briefing against her by very senior figures in the party. The modern, ‘progressive’ SNP couldn’t possibly be led by someone with such views. Even though Forbes had made clear she had no desire to roll back any equality legislation, she was caricatured as an angry bigot. In the end, Forbes was defeated. But not destroyed.
The result of the leadership contest, won by Yousaf by a margin of 52-48 showed that, far from viewing her as a pariah, a great many members of the SNP were perfectly comfortable with Forbes’ faith and its influence upon her.
The Scottish Greens – whose sacking from the Holyrood power-sharing government precipitated Yousaf’s downfall – have made it clear that they prefer to work with someone whose values they can respect. This, lest there be any doubt, means ‘not Kate Forbes’.
Worried not only about the direction in which Forbes might drag the party, but about how she would navigate a bitterly divided parliament of minority parties, dozens of SNP politicians urged Swinney to step up. Popular with party members, Swinney – who joined the SNP at the age of 15 in 1979 – is about to take on the top job in Scottish politics. What a pity he doesn’t really want it.
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