From ‘A Besieged Empire‘, The Spectator, 29 May 1915:
All that can be seen at the present moment is that the Germans seem to be capable of supplying themselves with all essential requisites in spite of the almost complete blockade maintained by their enemies. There is, however, one consideration which points clearly to their final failure unless that blockade be relieved. Their own resources in materials may be, on the hypothesis most favourable to them, ample, at any rate for a very long period; but their human resources certainly are not inexhaustible. This statement does not mean merely that the number of fighting men they can put in the field is less than that of their opponents, though here alone the disproportion is very great. The united populations of Germany, Austria, and Turkey are about one hundred and forty millions. The united populations of Russia, France, Italy, Serbia, and the United Kingdom are about three hundred millions. In addition, the Allied Powers are able to draw on part of the population of Belgium, on a very large proportion of the population of British self-governing Dominions, and on an appreciable fraction of the population of India and of the French North African colonies. Thus from the military point of view the disproportion of the human element, even when allowance is made for the fact that the whole of the British population is not serving, is at least two to one. The economic disproportion is even greater, and this is really the crux of the matter when we are looking upon the Germanic Powers as a besieged Empire. For these two Powers can only draw upon their own strength for all their necessities, industrial and military, whereas their enemies can draw upon the strength of the rest of the world. At the present moment men and women in the United States and in other neutral countries are using their brains and muscles to supply Great Britain and her allies with food, with the materials of industry, and with the implements of war. It is true that part of these goods is paid for by goods which have to be produced by the brains and muscles of our own peoples, but, in addition, if the need should arise, we can obtain these goods from neutral countries on credit. The investments of Great Britain alone outside her own Empire amount to thousands of millions. These may not all be immediately realizable, but if need be probably some hundreds of millions could be realized; or, as an alternative, we could—again if the need should arise—raise loans in the United States. The point is that in the final resort the world at large is open to us and closed to our enemies, and therefore time is fighting on our side. Sooner or later, either from lack of material or from lack of men or from lack of credit, the Germanic Empires must be crushed unless they can by military strength alone win sufficient victories to crush their enemies. But that, we venture to say, will not happen. The German soldier is certainly not a better fighting man than the soldier of the Allies. He is probably not as good a fighter. Very soon he will not even be as well equipped. We shall win. It is only a question how much blood we shall lose before we do win.
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