When you hear the words ‘economic recovery’, do you think: ‘Great! Britain is on the mend’? Or ‘Damn! I should have bet on the Tories to win an outright majority’? If your reaction is the latter, this column is for you.
Back in March, when economists were talking about a triple dip and Chancellor Osborne looked like a miserable failure, you could have found odds of 5/1 on a Tory majority in 2015. Today things look rosier, and William Hill is offering 11/4.
The Ukip treasurer and spread-betting tycoon Stuart Wheeler didn’t miss the trick. Given his position in politics, he can hardly be praying for a runaway Cameron victory. But Wheeler is a gambling man first. During the summer, he backed the Tories with a bet that was, as he puts it, ‘bigger than a fiver’; at 4/1, the Tories ‘looked a little long’.
Now if anything they look a little short. Their odds may have inched outwards last week — 3/1 on Betfair as I write — with all the hype about Ed Miliband’s conference s peech. But I’ll wager that by the time you read this, after David Cameron’s party address on Wednesday, the price on a Tory win will have shrunk again. (A valuable if obvious tip: always back a party ahead of its annual conference, then ‘lay off’ — bet the other way — the day after the leader’s speech. Barring complete disaster, the spinners and tame hacks will almost always ensure that his message goes down well.)
We shouldn’t, however, underestimate Cameron’s ability to blow a winning position. Look at what he did with a ten-point poll lead in 2010. Whatever the macroeconomic indicators, it’s not as if most voters will be basking in feelgood by June 2015.
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