The Sturgeon paradox: the worse she does, the more popular she becomes

Before Covid-19, if you can remember such a time, this was supposed to be a difficult year for Nicola Sturgeon. Her party had been in power in Edinburgh since 2007 and, like all ministries of such antiquity, was beginning to look jaded. There was never any doubt that she would remain First Minister following next year’s Holyrood elections, but the prospect of her winning a majority seemed to be receding.

Opposition parties believed that a relentless focus on the SNP’s record in office would be enough to clip Sturgeon’s wings. After 13 years, it was hard to point to many stunning successes: on the contrary, failures and scandals were accumulating. Time ruins all governments and hers did not seem to be an exception. But, as 2020 has shown, normal rules do not apply to Nicola Sturgeon.

The virus changed everything. Now she is arguably Britain’s most popular politician — more popular in England than Boris Johnson, according to one poll — and her stock in Scotland has never been higher. Opinion polls suggest the next Holyrood parliament will be cursed with a pro-independence majority. The future of the United Kingdom once again hangs in the balance. To save it, Unionists need to work out why.

Rarely has a discrepancy between perception and performance been so stark. Although the prevalence of the virus is currently lower in Scotland than England, second-wave death rates are actually 25 per cent higher. Many of the mistakes made in England were also made in Scotland, not least discharging patients from hospitals into care homes without first checking they were not bringing the virus with them. By any reasonable estimation, Scotland’s performance has been mediocre at best.

But in modern Scotland, relative success counts for more than absolute success. Sturgeon’s rave reviews come not just from fawning Nationalists but also from dismayed Unionists.