The tax credit revolt has only just begun

Even though the Tories got their way on yesterday’s vote on tax credits, in which they managed to get a laws-of-physics-defying majority of 35, they cannot regard this matter as settled. Indeed, there is still a serious threat of a revolt on this matter.

George Osborne held individual meetings with each of the handful of Tory MPs who were seriously worried about the policy, which lowers the threshold for withdrawing tax credits from £6,420 to £3,850 and speed up the rate of withdrawal as pay rises. That strategy of wearing down each MP on their own rather than allowing them to work as a group clearly worked as in the end only David Davis – who is irreconcilable anyway – and Stephen McPartland voted against, with Andrew Percy abstaining. The others were reassured that there would be sufficient mitigation.

However, MPs may be shocked by the response from their constituents when they either find out that they are going to be hit by the changes, or when the changes do hit.