The tectonic plates just shifted

Alan Johnson’s interview with Alice Thomson and Rachel Sylvester changes the dynamics of the Labour leadership debate. By once again making clear that he isn’t interested in the top job and praising David Miliband in such lavish terms, Johnson has made clear that he won’t be a candidate. (Johnson admits that it was his defeat in the deputy leadership contest that “finished the little bit of ambition” he had inside him).

As Sam Coates notes, this opens up space for another contender given that Miliband is unacceptable to large chunks of the party. Sam speculates that if there is a contest it will be a straight left-right fight between Miliband and Cruddas. But I expect it will actually be a three way race with Harman or Straw running as a middle ground, unity candidate. Harman’s positioning in the last week has been typically astute. She has been sounding—unlike her cabinet colleagues—increasingly warm about Gordon as the week goes on, suggesting that she is aiming to secure the loyalist vote in a post-Brown leadership election.