The Tories aren’t in party mood

Nearly two years on from the general election and 11 years since the Tories took office, they remain comfortably and consistently ahead in the polls. This is remarkable. In September 2008, when Labour was in power, it was almost 20 points behind the Conservative party. Eighteen years before that, when the Tories were in power, they regularly trailed by double digits. You might think this Tory lead, and the poor numbers for the leader of the opposition — Keir Starmer’s latest approval rating is minus 39 — would have led to Tory triumphalism. However, when Tory MPs return to parliament next week, they will do so in a strikingly subdued mood.

In part this is because of the issues at the top of the agenda. It is hard for anyone who believes in western values to feel triumphalist after the events in Afghanistan. The chaotic withdrawal has been humiliating, leaving thousands of those who helped the Nato mission there at risk. Of course there were limits to what could have been done militarily once the Americans had decided to withdraw. But the government being caught on the hop by the crisis and failing to get out everyone who worked with UK troops has been a dispiriting sight.

Then there is Covid. All the restrictions, apart from the requirement to isolate if you test positive, have gone in England for the vaccinated and those under 18. But normality still seems some way off. There is also concern about the autumn term and what that might mean for cases. Around 13 million people’s weekday routine will change with the return of education this month. Looking at what has happened in Scotland, where schools are already back, this is likely to lead to a Covid spike. This should be manageable given the levels of immunity in the population.