The threat to the Tories from Reform is one element of the Conservative party’s unprecedented crisis. The party has lost votes to the right before, but never in a way that has cost them so many seats. As well as picking up five of their own MPs, Reform took Tory votes elsewhere to let Labour through in dozens of seats this summer. Now, Farage’s outfit is looking at making that a permanent threat.
So far, a big criticism of Reform is that it has been a top-heavy organisation. The party has had money and a Westminster presence but little impact locally. That is changing. Membership is reportedly surging, perhaps even making the party bigger than the Conservatives. In May, Reform will pose a big threat in council and mayoral elections. The slate of elections in 2025 could barely be better suited for an insurgent right pushback against the old guard.
The Tories don’t seem quite to understand why they want to beat Reform
Reform is also trying to pull away more defecting Tories. In recent weeks, former MP Andrea Jenkyns and Westminster influencer Tim Montgomerie have signed up with the party. Machinations are happening at lower levels, too. Councillors up for election in May are being courted by Reform, with incumbents receiving Farage-headed letters tempting them to cross the floor and be the victor of a Reform surge, not the victim. Some will probably take the bait.
Alongside this lies the rumour that Elon Musk is set to give $100 million to the party. It feels like this is not entirely credible, and the money would be subject to UK political spending regulations. However, even a fraction of this amount would make Reform a significant threat. And the fact that Musk is considering donating shows how Reform is building momentum and attracting donors. Indeed, I’ve heard that ahead of May’s elections, Reform is paying campaign managers roughly double what CCHQ offer.
Many in the Tory party seem to be missing this threat. There is a sense that the purpose of Reform is to act like a pressure group, to drag the Conservatives to the right. This feels naïve. The stated aim of Reform is to crush the Conservative party and entirely replace it. This should be obvious. Farage and co. mention it often enough. More than that, if Farage had ever wanted to be inside the Tory project, he would have been by now. He’d have had a decent chance of getting selected at any point in the last 40 years. But he hasn’t.
This points towards a bigger problem. The Tories don’t seem quite to understand why they want to beat Reform. Or, rather, Reform is seen purely in electoral rather than political terms. For the Tories, beating Reform is important to win back power, not about what it means for policy or outcomes. This is a strategic mistake that will hamper the Conservatives. If they carry on like this, the Tories are more likely to try and ape Reform rather than offering something different, and to do a deal that empowers a party that is ultimately their opponent. This will likely only increase Reform’s chances of success.
One of the wisest things a former boss told me is that ‘strategy comes from knowing what you’re not, as much as what you are.’ Reform grasp this. They understand that they are not Conservatives and want to defeat the Tories, not simply to win, but because they disagree with them. The Tories, on the other hand, seem to be struggling with this. They see Reform purely as electoral disruptors without having a deep sense of why they don’t want them to win. That is not enough.
To really take on Reform, the Conservatives need to understand what they want to offer that’s different and why. They need to fully understand the differences between the parties and where to press them. They need an answer to the question, ‘Why don’t you want Reform in power?’ that goes beyond ‘Because they are not us’. They need to see the insurgent party as opponents rather than just as allies who are going through a different phase.
This change in mindset would yield two real benefits. The first is that it would help the Conservatives formulate more of their policy platform and ideas. Rather than simply chasing the Reform vote, the party would have an alternative, more confident vision. Some of this vision may overlap with Reform’s, but it would still be distinct. This approach would help the Tories build back an electoral coalition.
We know already the party must pull voters back in from all sides. Equally, we know this is easier said than done. Voter behaviour is complex, volatile, and often hard to explain. People view themselves and parties in more ways than moving left or right. It’s bound up in policy, identity and a bunch of other things. Having a broad Conservative position as a unique offering could appeal to people in ways that a hodgepodge of positions can’t. It could squeeze Reform and bring back voters lost elsewhere.
It also serves as insurance. The reality for the Conservative party is it may have to do some sort of deal with Reform. Already, some are calling for this. I am very sceptical of pre-election pacts and suspect the central party is too. On current polling, however, to come even close to forming a government, the Tories would need a coalition with Reform. Having a clear sense of where you disagree with Farage’s party is vital for these sorts of negotiations to work. Right now, it is hard to infer what Tory red lines for a coalition would be and when they would be prepared to walk away. That will only hinder them unless they fix it before the time comes.
With a bit of thought, the differences between Conservatives and Reform are there. The most obvious is Reform’s isolationism. Farage, in particular, has been sceptical of support for Ukraine and broader international institutions. More widely, Reform positions itself against globalism and organisations like the WEF and UN. This is not a stance that the Conservatives have ever really had much truck with beyond Euroscepticism – and an area they could easily differentiate themselves from Reform.
The same is true of the environment and climate change. Reform has been critical of the very idea of human-driven climate change. This has been largely only a fringe view within the Tories. The last few governments made significant progress on decarbonising Britain and, in policy (rather than rhetoric), have cut a pragmatic line between economic and environmental costs. Given that public opinion on this is far closer to the Tories than Reform, it would be a wise point of difference to push.
The point is that there is already real cleavage between the two parties. They are not interchangeable. The Conservatives need to seize on this at a strategic level. Reform wants to crush them; they should want to do the same in return and shape their approach accordingly.
There is a larger problem the Tories need to address. For too much of their time in government, the Tories acted as though power was something you held rather than exercised. There was a lack of vision and confidence about where the party was going and what it stood for. Too many of its people thought winning was about getting a red box and a ministerial car rather than achieving specific outcomes. The worry is that the fight against Reform is seen in the same way.
For Conservatives, the issue with Reform is not simply that the insurgent party might stop us from winning. It’s that given power, they will do things we think are bad. We should think we are better at governing and better for the country than Reform are. When I speak to friends on the left, they seem to get this. Labour wants to beat the Greens, not be in a coalition with them.
Reform understands why it wants to defeat the Tories. One of the noticeable things from the leadership contest is that Kemi Badenoch does seem to get this. She should work to embed this throughout the party.
In politics, you should be convinced that your opponents are bad. They are not necessarily bad people, but you should have a sure sense of why you want power and why they shouldn’t have it. Viewing your opponents primarily in electoral terms is a block to this. The Tories should want to take votes off Reform – not just because it helps them win.
Comments