Tories slump to 17 per cent in poll

A new YouGov poll published this morning makes for grim reading for Kemi Badenoch’s team. It finds that, in the wake of the local elections, Reform are now on 29 points compared to Labour on 22 and the Tories on just 17, with the Liberal Democrats on 16. That is the joint-lowest ever Conservative poll rating, tying with June 2019, during the dark days of the Brexit wars. According to YouGov:

Naturally, these results are quite striking, but they are probably in line with what we would expect after the locals. With Reform performing so well Thursday, and the positive media coverage that is associate with such a result, it is not surprising they have received this boost. The test will be whether this is a blip or whether it will sustain over the coming weeks.

Reform believes that the Tory vote has even further to bottom out. For the past two years, the challenge for Nigel Farage’s advisors has been to convince voters that a vote for Reform is not a wasted vote. The local elections have demonstrated that this is no longer the case, with this poll suggesting that some voters have now switched from the Tory campaign into Reform. Some will be attracted by good coverage; others are seeking to attach themselves to the most effective anti-Labour electoral vehicle.

Badenoch’s leadership now faces a serious moment of peril. Having taken over the party after its worst election defeat in history, some of her supporters believed that the only way is up. Clearly, that is not the case: last week’s projected national vote share was just 15 per cent, down from the 23.7 per cent Rishi Sunak won last July. This YouGov poll will doubtless bring back uncomfortable memories of Theresa May for older Tory MPs. There were those who said, at the beginning of 2019, that she was ‘unchallengeable’ after winning a confidence bid at the end of 2018. But the catastrophe of the European elections proved the catalyst for wavering Tory MPs to cast aside their doubts and oust their second female leader.

Badenoch is not in that zone yet. She has only had six months as leader; much of the defeat last week would have been inflicted regardless of who was in charge. But the pressure on her is clearly growing. Tory MPs were last night invited for a drinks reception in the shadow cabinet room. Having promised a 'slow but steady' approach on Sunday, Badenoch told attendees that she understood that there is a need to move quicker in future. With this year's party conference shaping up to be a make-or-break event, expect to see a step change on her much-vaunted policy renewal programme.