The Tories need a genuine liberal

Vernon Bogdanor says that David Cameron is the only Conservative who can read the nation’s mood and respond to it

In the 1960s Harold Wilson sought to make Labour the natural party of government. Tony Blair seems to have succeeded in doing so. The Conservatives have now been in opposition for eight years, their longest period out of government since the days of Asquith and Lloyd George before 1914. Never before, during the period of mass suffrage, have they lost three consecutive general elections. Moreover, at no stage since 1997 have they appeared credible as a potential party of government. That is bad, not only for the Conservatives but also for the country. Governments, under our constitution, even though elected on a minority of the popular vote, enjoy almost untrammelled power. Without an effective opposition, that power will not be properly scrutinised.

Labour, too, was out of office for a whole political era, from 1979 to 1997. But, after eight years in opposition, it had already begun, however hesitantly, the process of modernisation under Neil Kinnock, the bridge between Old and New Labour. Moreover Labour was ahead in the opinion polls for much of the period between general elections. The Conservatives, by contrast, have been behind Labour in the opinion polls for most of the past eight years. Indeed, never since Gallup first began polling in Britain in 1937 has one party — Labour — held a lead for so long a period — since 1992 — for most of which it has been in government. The Conservatives have not even begun the process of modernisation. Instead, they seem to be engaged in a permanent quarrel with the British people. In that quarrel there can be only one victor, and it will not be the Conservative party.

To understand the Tory problem, we have to go back to 1992 when John Major’s government was forced to depart, permanently as it turned out, from the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system.