The Tories need a ‘what’ as much as a ‘who’

Theresa May has made it to the summer. In the aftermath of the election, Downing Street’s immediate aim was to get the Prime Minister to the parliamentary recess. On Thursday they succeeded. They think that the next six weeks will give the government a much-needed chance to regroup and catch its breath. Like a cricket team playing for the close, they hope conditions will be more favourable when proceedings resume. But is there any reason to think that things will be different in September? The summer break can do many things but it can’t conjure up another 20 Tory MPs or put time on the Brexit clock.

Tory optimists claim things will be better once everyone has had a lie down. The theory goes that the resentments caused by the way ministers were treated during Theresa May’s first year in office, the woeful general election campaign and the personal animosities that have developed in cabinet in the past few years have collided with the Westminster summer party season, leading to an outbreak of leaking. They think tempers will be less frayed when every-one returns in September, refreshed and adjusted to the change in the political weather.

The counter-argument is that the conference season starts soon after parliament returns. Party conference makes the Westminster summer circuit look like a mindfulness festival. Even in the best of times, it leads to lots of stories that cause problems for the leadership. This year will be particularly fraught because it will be the first gathering of the Tory tribe since the election went so badly wrong. Without extreme care, it will turn into a disorganised beauty parade of leadership contenders.