The Tories would far rather fight an election in 2010 than early next year. By 2010, reality will have caught up with Gordon Brown. But the best way for the Tories to avoid a poll next year is to talk about it endlessly.
Brown Central is aware that they cannot go through another bout of election speculation like the one in the summer of 2007; it would look hideously self-serving at this time of economic crisis. So, if Brown does decide to go early, he’ll aim for a snap announcement too.
The Tory counter should be to start talking about it now. A line to take would be:
“We know what he did last summer—and he’s doing the same again, flirting with an election for partisan advantage. With Gordon Brown the question is always what’s in his interest not the national interest.”
Given the press’s fascination with election timing – just look at the front of today’s Guardian if you doubt me – the consequences of an early election would quickly become a staple of political conversation. And because Brown knows that he can’t afford another round of election speculation, there’s a good chance he could be bounced into ruling it out.
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