Normally the news that the Tories had fallen and Labour had gained in the polls would be met with cheers in the Brown bunker but the latest Populus poll might actually hasten the Prime Minister’s exit. The poll shows that opinion has hardened against him and that at least some of the Tory’s new-found support is soft. The implication will not be lost on Labour MP in marginal seats: if they change leader they might just have a chance.
Brown’s personal numbers are, as Peter Riddell notes, incredibly bad. Only 25 percent of those polled think Brown is up to the job of being PM. Three fifths of those who voted Labour at the last general election think Brown is a loser with that fraction rising to three-quarters among the public as a whole. 67 percent of voters say Brown is weak rather than strong.
It is hard to imagine any party led by someone with these ratings winning a general election or even preventing the other side from gaining an overall majority. But the four percent fall in Tory support suggests that the Tories have yet to fully lock in the advantage they have gained in recent months. the poll lends weight to the argument often made by leading Blairites that David Cameron has yet to seal the deal and that Labour still has a chance to turn this round.
Yet considering Brown’s numbers it is almost impossible to conceive of Labour managing this with him at the helm. Labour MPs who have become dispirited and fatalistic in recent weeks might just look at this poll and see the beginnings of a plan for how they could save their own seats or at least prevent the Tories from gaining a two-term majority.
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