The Tory party is split on one issue: Boris

‘I can’t put into words how awful this is’ remarks one Tory MP. The party is split not on the kind of policy issue that people can debate but on the question of one man: the Prime Minister. Neither side is finding this struggle rewarding. The Johnson loyalists feel that they spend all day trying to bail water out of the boat, only to be hit by another wave as yet another story breaks. Those who want Johnson gone fear that the police investigation may slow every-thing down and that the current mantra, ‘Wait for the Sue Gray report’, will simply morph into ‘Wait for the Met report’.

In No. 10, there is still a mood of defiance. Just because the police are investigating matters doesn’t prove that regulations have been broken, they say, and the punishment for breaching Covid rules is generally only a penalty charge notice. Those around Johnson have consistently underestimated how serious this crisis is. They haven’t understood that the anger about it isn’t tribal; it’s not just felt by those who don’t like the government but by natural Tory supporters too. Tory MPs with local elections in May report council candidates pulling out because they feel they can’t face the reaction on the doorstep, even in Tory wards.

Can Johnson turn this situation around? Once prime-ministerial approval ratings go into decline they rarely revive, but Johnson’s supporters hope that he’ll prove an exception, and that his reputation for defying political convention will persuade his parliamentary party to give him one more chance. ‘The majority of MPs still want things to be all right,’ says one Johnson confidant. But things being all right will require Johnson to sort out the problems that have bedevilled his premiership. In a sign of the current mood, one of his more loyal cabinet ministers observes: ‘He is like a primordial evolutionary being.