Peter Hoskin

The Tory tax cut: first impressions

I haven’t seen all the numbers yet – or, indeed, many details at all – so consider the following as very loose, first impressions of the tax cut Cameron’s just announced (details here):

What is it? Companies which employ workers who have been jobless for three months will get a cut in the amount of national insurance they pay.  The cut will be worth £2,500 for every such worker taken on.  According to Cameron, that could reduce the overall tax burden on companies by up to £2.6 billion, and create up to 350,000 jobs.

How is it funded? Out of the cash that would otherwise have been spent on unemployment benefits.

Potential pros. A neat double action: reduces the tax burden whilst also reducing unemployment – helps both business and individuals.  350,000 jobs would be a hefty reduction in unemployment (currenty around 1.8 million).  Provided the numbers work out, there’s a nice synergy to funding the meaure out of welfare payments.

Potential cons.  From a purely political perspective, will it be able to compete with the kind of “cash in your pocket”-style cuts that Brown’s expected to announce for low- and middle-income earners?  From a policy perspective, the biggest issue seems to be about take-up.  There’s a big IF hanging over it all.  Companies will get this cut if they take on workers who have been unemployed for three months.  But will companies do that in a downturn just to get a tax break?  If not, the £2.6 billion and 350,000 jobs figures could be optimistic.

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