Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

The Treasury dishes up more Brexit fearmongering. Will it work?

It’s now exactly one month until the EU referendum and the Treasury has marked the moment with another economic warning about the consequences of Brexit. The analysis out today claims that walking away from the European Union would kick-start a year-long recession. Brexit would also lower the country’s economic growth down by 3.6 per cent, according to the analysis. Although George Osborne must be nearing the point of running out of words to describe the economic ramifications of Brexit, in an article in the Daily Telegraph, Osborne and Cameron had this to say:

‘It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy. The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.’

The economic argument is the same as before: Brexit would be bad news for the economy. We’ve also seen a new phrase touted today about how a leave vote this time next month would spark a ‘DIY recession’. This is clunky enough that it won’t turn into the catchphrase that Osborne and Cameron may have hoped but that won’t matter much. The main point of today’s report isn’t that it will be taken in isolation but that it forms part of the drum beat warning of the economic danger of Brexit. Take this from the Telegraph article:

‘A few weeks ago, the Treasury published analysis which shows Britain would be worse off to the tune of £4,300 for every household every year by 2030.

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