The triumph of Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein has consolidated its position as the biggest political party in Northern Ireland. It retained its seven seats and, as a result of DUP reversals, is now Northern Ireland’s largest party at Westminster. Sinn Fein were very close to winning the East Londonderry seat from the DUP – which went to various recounts – but the DUP held on with a majority of 179. So the result could have been even better for them. 

Already the largest party at the Stormont Assembly and on Northern Ireland’s councils, it is quite the hat-trick for Sinn Fein and its leader Michelle O’Neill. Increasing its majorities in each of the seats it held will also be a morale boost to the party after recent electoral reversals in the Republic. 

That Sinn Fein domination is unlikely to be challenged anytime soon, largely as a consequence of the atomisation of the unionist vote. The DUP remains the largest pro-UK party but had a terrible evening, securing its worst ever vote share at a Westminster election and losing three of the eight seats it held previously. 

The loss of North Antrim, previously the fiefdom of the Paisley family, to the Traditional Unionist Voice is emblematic of a party which has lost its way. The triumph of Jim Allister is a sign that intra-unionist divisions over the Windsor Framework are far from over. The loss of Lagan Valley, which had been represented by the former DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, to the Alliance Party is also testament to how tarnished the DUP brand has become in red, white and blue heartlands. 

Northern Ireland now has an alphabet soup of parties representing it. The UUP are back in the Commons and are joined by an Independent Unionist, with the SDLP holding on to its two seats. While the nationalist community is clearly coalescing around Sinn Fein, the rest of the electoral landscape is much more fragmented. 

That fragment suits Sinn Fein from a pure numbers perspective, for as long as there is no equivalent hegemon on the unionist side. In terms of the long-game, the question of unification with the south however, it is still clear that there is no common consensus in Northern Ireland. 

More importantly, a new Labour government is unlikely to engage in any discussions on the constitution. It simply does not need the headache. Its main focus in Northern Ireland will be ameliorating some of the more egregious elements of the current deal with the EU, which may actually bring Northern Ireland more in line with Great Britain regarding trade and standards. 

For all that Sinn Fein speaks of change, dig deeper and this result proves that Northern Ireland is still stuck in constitutional aspic.