There is no certainty today. For years we humble wage-earners were told that City bankers were sage repositories of special expertise who could be entrusted with that little that is left when the taxman and the bookies have finished with us. In reality, it turns out, they were greedy spivs who knew no more about the financial packages they dealt in to feed their bonuses than the betting shop loud mouth who claims infallible information about the winner of the forthcoming 2.30.
Now in racing, too, we are riven with doubt. After his defeat at Kempton Park last Saturday on a seasonal debut delayed by a heart scare, many are suggesting that ‘The Tank’, as Denman’s devoted part-owner Harry Findlay calls him, has a busted engine, that his dominance of the jumping scene could prove a mere single-season phenomenon. Was it a blip, or had we over-estimated him all along?
The Denman doubters suggest that ‘The Tank’ is a bully, that he only won races in the past because he was allowed to dominate from the front. This time, they point out, Madison du Berlais, who beat Denman by 23 lengths, took him on after the tenth fence and never let him get into his rhythm. The doubters note, too, that after his extraordinary Gold Cup Triumph last season Denman never made another appearance, suggesting that that race had taken far more out of him than his clear Cheltenham victory over his stablemate Kauto Star had indicated. The vets may have pronounced him clear of his heart fibrillation problem, they say, but they weren’t testing him under the physical and mental stress of a race.
Those who would excuse Denman argue that a sharp right-handed track did not suit him as the galloping, left-handed Newbury track, where the contest was due to have been held before the weather intervened, would have done. They argue that he was ring-rusty, running for the first time in 11 months after the correction of his irregular heartbeat, and that while Denman was well beaten by Madison du Berlais he was still 25 lengths clear of Alberta’s Run, the horse who was only eight lengths behind Kauto Star in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.
The key for me was the unconcealed disappointment of the admirably-open Paul Nicholls, trainer of both Denman and Kauto Star. He did not suggest his horse was only part-fit and said that while Denman might improve for the run it would not be by much. ‘He’s done enough work to be fit. He’s not going to improve enormously. He might not be as good as he was.’ Kauto Star, said Paul, was now the one to beat in the Gold Cup and it was after that comment that he disclosed that Denman, who has never shown much at home, had taken a long while to recover from his Cheltenham success last year.
In 2008 the ever more popular sport of jump racing benefited hugely from the publicity accorded in advance of the Cheltenham Festival to the upcoming clash between the two stars who occupy adjoining boxes at Nicholls’s Manor Place Farm. It was Arkle against Mill House all over again. Would the classy athlete Kauto Star, or the relentless galloper Denman prevail? This time for the month ahead is: was that a one-off disappointment from Denman or the beginning of the end? Is Kauto Star a cinch to win back the crown? Again, a fair few trees will die to feed the speculation.
I think Denman deserves the benefit of the doubt. Few of us have ever seen a more majestic performance than his destruction of the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup field at Newbury under top weight of 11st 12lb in the autumn of 2007. It was, in a word, awesome. Saturday’s defeat at Kempton was the very first time he had been beaten in ten races over fences. He is entitled to one bad-coat day.
One other factor, too, has been rather brushed aside: the quality of the horse who beat him at Kempton. Madison du Berlais may have surprised us all, including his trainer, by the margin of his victory but he was fully entitled to be taking on the big horse. David Pipe’s charge was Denman’s successor as the winner of the 2008 Hennessy in a season in which other Pipe horses have not been performing up to expectations. He has been transformed by being run in cheekpieces, not the most elegant of sights on the racecourse but an effective aid to concentration.
The cluster of agitated correspondents around Paul Nicholls rather took away from David Pipe’s achievement but Madison du Berlais is quite clearly some horse in himself and is now only 10-1 for the Gold Cup. We had expected Denman to be able to beat his field only 80 per cent fit, but it may well be that not even Denman could have beaten Madison du Berlais if not fully wound-up, and, as Paul Nicholls admits, he is not a horse to show much at home. Even the maestro of Ditcheat could have under-cooked him a little .
The Pipe yard took their chance and prospered. It remains the intention to sharpen Madison du Berlais still further one day with the application of blinkers. If that happens on Gold Cup Day he could be the each-way value.
In the meantime, congratulations to the British Horseracing Authority, to the Levy Board and to Kempton Park for in 24 hours rescuing a frozen-off fixture and creating a substitute star race. Long live the new age of active racecourse management.
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